V.P. Vyshnevskyi , N.M. Shelud’ko
Based on the application of the developed concept of the economic and monetary potential, it is justified that in the medium term the world is likely to be generally divided into (if you ignore the British pound and the Japanese yen) the unstable predominant areas of US dollar (relatively stable), Euro (decreasing), and RMB (increasing). The Russian ruble will remain on the world’s periphery and the potential growth of its influence will only be of a regional character. In general, the world will move to a multipolar financial architecture, the formation of which is connected with the «warming up» of new hotbeds of financial strains.
Nevertheless, the US dollar will still remain the world’s leading currency for a long time (at least until the 2030s), due to the high political and military, and economic influence of the USA, the relatively balanced monetary flows’ sources, the orientation of the economy on large internal market, rather than on volatile external markets as well as taking into account the «path dependence», in this case, the benefits from using the dollar of the minimizing transaction costs standpoint.
The book also substantiates that in the medium-term agenda, despite the fact that the leading central banks managed to pacify the global crisis of 2007—2008, to improve the prospects for the developed economies and to begin the processes of normalizing the monetary policy, there remain the following questions of: distorted asset values and high risks in the non-financial sector, which is being restructured on cyber-physical technologies; persistently low interest rates in many developed countries; overheated credit and securities markets; high levels of global and national debts; targeted use of national currencies in order to achieve unilateral trading advantages, new challenges related to the restructuring of the financial intermediation sector on the fintech principles, etc. This is exactly the modern «new normality» under which turbulent processes of shaping the new political and economic structure of the world will take place in the coming years. This agenda defines the features of the current «financial normality», in which the new political and economic structure of the world will be formed in the forthcoming years.